By Bello Abdullahi
Let me tell you something about the North, and I say this as someone who has watched this game long enough to know when the chessboard is being confused for the players.
There’s a quiet confidence floating around President Tinubu’s circle these days. The kind of confidence that comes from a spreadsheet full of names, governors, Yari, Rarara, the APC machinery, and a conclusion that says: the North is handled.
I’m here to tell you, respectfully, that this is the political equivalent of counting the wedding guests and assuming you know how the marriage will go.
Let me break it down for you, because I genuinely enjoy this stuff.
Structures don’t vote. People do.
Yes, governors have networks. Yes, Abdulaziz Yari is a heavyweight. Yes, Dauda Kahutu Rarara can sing a narrative into the hearts of millions, the man is a phenomenon, no doubt. And yes, the APC machine knows how to turn out a crowd.
But here’s what I want you to sit with: none of these people own the souls of Northern voters. They can rent attention. They can shape moods. They cannot transfer loyalty like a bank transaction. The Northern electorate is not a herd. It’s a jury, and in 2027, that jury will deliberate.
And what will they deliberate on?
Not just party logos. Not just endorsements. They’ll ask themselves a question that no political strategist can spin away: Has this government made my life better, and do I see myself in it?
That second part is where it gets interesting.
There’s a perception, and I want to be careful here, because perception and statistics don’t always shake hands, that this administration’s center of gravity leans heavily South-West. Especially in the most visible, most strategic positions. Now, you can argue the numbers all day. But politics doesn’t run on your spreadsheet. It runs on how people feel about their place in the federation.
And in parts of the North, that feeling is asking questions.
So here’s the question any government seeking broad Northern support must answer plainly: Do Northerners see themselves as genuine stakeholders, or as spectators in their own country?
That question isn’t answered by press releases. It’s answered by appointments. By access to decision-making. By federal projects that actually land. By economic opportunities that reach beyond the elite circle. By the sense, the deeply human sense, that this government hears the North and responds to it.
Now let’s talk about the things that don’t care about your political alliances at all.
Food prices. Employment. Purchasing power. Insecurity. Education. The rural economy.
These are not abstract policy items. These are the things that sit at a family’s dinner table every single night. You cannot neutralize a hungry stomach with a campaign jingle. You cannot endorse your way out of a collapsing local economy.
Rarara can shape narratives. Yari can bring experience and networks. Governors can provide organizational muscle. I respect all of it.
But not one of them can determine how millions of individual voters will assess this administration when they stand alone in that booth.
And here’s the part I really want you to chew on.
The North is not one constituency. It never has been. It’s a tapestry, different states, different communities, different histories, different grievances, different aspirations. Kano is not Kaduna. Sokoto is not Bauchi. The interests shift as you move across the map.
So when a strategy leans heavily on elite alliances, it risks missing the diversity of opinion underneath. It’s like reading the table of contents and claiming you’ve read the book.
So let me leave you with this.
The fundamental mistake, and I’ve seen it swallow governments before, is confusing access to Northern elites with acceptance by Northern voters.
If Tinubu’s advisers are walking into the room and saying, “Mr. President, the governors are with us, Yari is with us, Rarara is singing our song, the North is secured,” then they are handing him a false sense of confidence. And false confidence is the most dangerous gift in politics.
The real test is broader. Deeper. Slower.
It’s how Northerners judge the performance, the inclusiveness, and the representation of this government when they make their individual choices at the ballot box.
That’s the reality. And no political machinery, however impressive, gets to skip that exam.
What do you think? Am I reading the North right, or is there something I’m missing? I’d love to hear your take.
Bello Abdullahi can be reached via: bellokeeto@gmail.com
