SO WHAT IF THE GOVERNMENT IS LOSING N15TR ANNUALLY ON SUBSIDY?: THE MEANING OF POLITICAL DEMOCRACY IS FOR THE VOTERS TO ELECT THEIR LEADERS AND THE ELECTED LEADERS SHOULD DO WHAT THE VOTERS WANT

By Abbati Bako, abbatibako@gmail.com

For the attention of H/E President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of Nigeria

The Minister of Finance says: “We are losing N15 trillion annually on fuel subsidy. It is unsustainable.”

My question is simple: So what?

Let me shock you: The government is not a company. The government is not a Dangote business. The government is not supposed to make profit. The government is supposed to make people happy. That is the essence of using democratic system as a game between vision and practically anywhere in the world.

If democracy is about profit and loss, then why do we vote?

THE BIG LIE OF NEOLIBERAL ECONOMICS:

For 40 years, the World Bank/IMF taught our leaders a lie: “The government must not lose money. Subsidies are a waste. Remove it.”

But let us interrogate that lie with simple logic:

1.  America loses $1.2 trillion annually on defence. They spend $877bn on the Pentagon that produces nothing — no garri, no rice, just bombs to kill. Does America say “defence is unsustainable, close the Pentagon”? No.

2.  The UK loses £150bn annually on the NHS — free health that never makes profit. Do they close hospitals because the NHS is losing money? No.

3.  Germany lost €65bn in 2022-2023 subsidizing electricity and gas for its citizens after the Russia-Ukraine war. Did Germany say “German citizens should suffer”? No. The Chancellor said “We will protect our people whatever the cost.” Hence, political policies are the management of the people.

4.  Saudi Arabia, with $2,857 per citizen fossil fuel subsidy per year — 40 times Nigeria — does not call it loss. They call it the share of the national cake.

So why is it that when Nigeria spends $64 per citizen per year on fuel the cheapest among all oil producers economists shout “unsustainable”?

Because we have been brainwashed to think the government is business.

WHAT IS DEMOCRACY?

Let me go back to my classroom in University of Kent:

Abraham Lincoln said: “Democracy is the government of the people, by the people, for the people.”

Jean Jacques Rousseau said: “Government is a social contract — people surrender power, leaders must deliver general will.”

What is the general will of the Nigerian voter?

I conducted informal poll in Wuse Market, Kano Kurmi Market, Onitsha Main Market: I asked 100 people:

“Do you want the government to remove the fuel subsidy and save N15tr, or keep the subsidy and buy fuel N300?”

98 said: KEEP SUBSIDY.
2 said: REMOVE.

So 98% of voters want subsidies. But 100% of economists want removal. Who should the President Bola Tinubu obey in democracy — 98% voters or 2% economists?

That is the meaning of democracy.

If voters want cheap fuel, leaders must give cheap fuel, even if the government loses N15tr. Because that N15tr is not government money — it is voters’ oil money!

Oil belongs to the people, not to the government. The government is just a manager. Meaning,  management of the resources and the people.

SO WHAT IF WE LOSE N15TR? WHAT DO WE GAIN?

Economists only calculate loss. They never calculate gain of subsidy:

– If fuel is N300, farmers in Kebbi can irrigate 2 hectares at low cost — food price crashes, inflation drops from 34% to 10%. How much is that worth? N20tr saved on food import.

– If fuel is N300, a danfo driver in Lagos can feed his 4 children, pay school fees, and not enter a one-chance robbery. How much is that security worth? N10tr saved the police, army.

– If fuel is N300, a factory in Aba can run a generator, employ 50 youth, youth won’t Japa or join Boko Haram. How much is that peace worth? Unquantifiable.

– If fuel is N300, voters believe democracy works for him. He will vote, not burn the ballot box. How much is that democracy worth? Priceless.

So the government “loses” N15tr on paper, but Nigeria gains N50tr in food, security, jobs, peace, and trust in democracy.

But IMF accounting only shows N15tr loss. It does not show N50tr gain because the gain is in the stomach of the poor, not in the Excel sheet of Washington.

THE REAL UNSUSTAINABLE THING:

What is truly unsustainable is this:

– Government saving N15tr from subsidy but borrowing N18tr same year — so where is saving?

– Government saving N15tr but giving N90bn for Hajj, N21bn for House of Reps renovation, N7bn for cars for First Lady office — so who is sacrificing?

– Government saving N15tr but 133 million citizens enter poverty — so who is benefiting?

If saving N15tr makes 133 million people poor, that saving is anti-people and anti-democracy.

HISTORY HAS JUDGED THIS DEBATE:

– In 1988, General Babangida removed partial subsidies under SAP. Riots killed 300. He lost legitimacy and stepped aside in 1993.

– In 2012, Jonathan removed subsidies to N97. Occupy Nigeria nearly toppled his government. He lost the 2015 election.

– In 2023, Tinubu moved fully to N600, now N1,500. Inflation highest in 28 years. Hence, where are the gains?

Every time a leader chose N15tr saving over voters’ wishes, voters punished him later.

Because in democracy, the ultimate auditor is not the World Bank — it is the voter with his PVC. Democracy is an interesting game.

CONCLUSION:

If the Government must lose money to make people happy, let the Government lose money. That is why we pay tax. That is why we have oil and other resources in Nigeria.

The duty of an elected leader is not to balance the account book. The CBN Governor can balance the books. Accountants can balance books. Peaceful conditions of the citizens and economic growth is number one priority.
The duty of the President is to make 240+ million Nigerians happy that they voted.

If Nigerians say “We want cheap fuel even if you lose N15tr”, a democratic President must obey — or be ready to lose the election in 2027. This happens in many advanced and emerging democracies.

Because in 2027, voters will not ask “Did you save N15tr?” They will ask “Did you make my life better than 2023?”

If the answer is NO, they will sack you — no matter how much grammar the IMF wrote for you. Voters are the backbone of democratic systems anywhere in the world.

Democracy is not economics. Democracy is about people, for the people and by the people.

And people want cheap fuel.

Abbati Bako is a political philosopher and governance analyst and can be reached via abbatibako@gmail.com or+2349077889959