Democracy Under Siege And Committing HARA-KIRI In Nigeria: Alert For 99% Of Nigerians And Global Democratic Stakeholders
By Abbati Bako
WHAT IS HARA-KIRI?
Hara-kiri is a Japanese word. It means honourable suicide when a samurai warrior, instead of waiting for enemy to kill him, uses his own sword to cut his own stomach and kill himself. That is what Nigerian democracy is doing today, committing hara-kiri killing itself with its own sword. Meaning that the party in power has been undermining opposition parties to retain power by whatever means.
Democracy is not being killed by a coup. Soldiers are in barracks. Democracy is being killed by democrats by elected leaders using democratic tools to destroy democracy. This is more dangerous than a military coup.
I RAISE ALERT FOR 99% OF NIGERIANS AND FOR GLOBAL DEMOCRATIC STAKEHOLDERS, UN, ECOWAS, AU, EU, US, UK BECAUSE WHAT HAPPENS IN NIGERIA IN 2027 WILL DETERMINE WHETHER DEMOCRACY SURVIVES IN AFRICA. ABOUT 10 COUNTRIES IN AFRICA ARE NOT DEMOCRATIC.
THE 7 WAYS NIGERIA’S DEMOCRACY IS COMMITTING HARA-KIRI:
- ELECTION IS BECOMING SELECTION — TURNOUT COLLAPSE:
Fact and figures — the sword number 1:
- The 1999 election: Turnout 52.3% — 30 million voted.
- 2003: 69.1% — highest — 42 million voted.
- 2007: 57.5%
- 2011: 53.7%
- 2015: 43.6% — 29 million voted out of 67 million registered.
- 2019: 34.7% — 28 million out of 82 million.
- 2023: 26.7% — 24.9 million out of 93.4 million registered. Lowest in African history for presidential election.
26.7% means 73.3% of registered Nigerians said “We don’t believe in this democracy again.” 93 million registered, only 24 million voted. 68 million stayed home.
When 99% suffer, but only 26% vote, democracy is committing suicide.
In Ghana 2024, turnout was 60%. In Senegal 2024, 61%. In South Africa 2024, 58%. Only Nigeria at 26%.
If the 2027 turnout falls below 25%, we can no longer call Nigeria democracy — we must call it electoral oligarchy — government of 25% over 75%.
- POVERTY IS WEAPONIZED FOR VOTE BUYING:
Second sword:
In 2023, 133 million Nigerians are in multidimensional poverty — NBS 2022 report. That is 63% of the population, the 99%, I alert.
Democracy says one man one vote. But when a man is hungry, his vote becomes one Naira.
Fact: In the 2023 election, EFCC arrested 12 states with N2bn cash for vote buying. Price of vote: N5,000 to N10,000.
When 63% are poor, N10,000 is 2 weeks feeding. So the poor man sells a vote that will govern him for 1,461 days for the price of 14 days of food.
This is not an election, this is an auction of destiny. Democracy is committing hara-kiri when hunger is used to buy power.
- JUDICIARY IS BECOMING EXTENSION OF EXECUTIVE THAT’S THE MOST DANGEROUS SWORD:
In the 1979-1983 Second Republic, election petitions were decided in 3 months. Today, the petition lasts 8 months — President already sworn in, sharing money, appointing judges then who will judge him?
In 2023, 1,209 election petitions filed — highest ever. Conflicting judgments: Same party, same facts one tribunal says winner, another says loser in same state.
When the common man says “Going to court is a waste of time” democracy has committed hara-kiri. Because the court is the last hope of the 99% population of the country.
Global stakeholders must note:
If the judiciary does not regain trust before 2027, 73% voters who stayed home will become 85% or even more.
- POLITICAL PARTIES ARE DEAD — ONLY PLATFORMS FOR HIGHEST BIDDER:
In the UK where I studied, the Labour Party has had a constitution since 1900, ideology — welfare. Conservative since 1834 free market.
In Nigeria, what is APC ideology? What is PDP ideology? What is ADC ideology?
All same: Power for power sake.
Fact: In the last 9 years, 62 Senators defected, 312 House members defected, 18 Governors defected. No penalty.
In 2023, the same politician contested PDP primary in May, APC primary in June, Labour in July after losing all, he became an independent candidate advocate.
When a party has no ideology, 99% have no choice only choice of same elite in different agbada.
- INEC TECHNOLOGY WITHOUT TRUST:
We introduced BVAS and IReV to build trust. But on Feb 25, 2023, IReV failed to upload presidential results for 4 days, but uploaded Senate and House of Representatives the same day on the same server.
Trust collapsed.
INEC says “glitch.” A Nigerian says “trick.”
Fact: Afrobarometer 2024 survey: Only 23% of Nigerians trust INEC to conduct free elections down from 51% in 2015. Lowest in West African Subregion.
When the umpire loses trust of 77%, game is over before kick-off.
- FREEDOM OF SPEECH UNDER SIEGE:
Democracy needs noise. But today:
- NBC fines Channels, Arise N5m for interviewing opposition.
- DSS invites journalists for a tweet.
- Cybercrime Act Section 24 used to arrest youth who insult the Governor on Facebook.
- 25 journalists arrested in 2023-2024 — Reporters Without Borders.
When 99% cannot talk, democracy becomes monologue, not dialogue.
- THE FINAL HARA-KIRI — ELITE CONSPIRACY TO SHRINK CIVIC SPACE:
Most dangerous: Elected leaders using democratic law to kill democracy:
- Electoral Act amendment to remove BVAS requirement being proposed.
- Bill to jail a person who does not vote — forcing 73% who lost faith to vote at gunpoint.
- Bill to create a 1-party system by making defection impossible but merger compulsory ironically.
This is a samurai” cutting his own stomach.
ALERT TO GLOBAL DEMOCRATIC STAKEHOLDERS:
Why should the UN, EU, and US care about Nigeria’s hara-kiri?
Because:
- Nigeria is 1 in 5 Africans. If democracy dies in Nigeria, it dies in 15 African countries.
- If the 2027 election has 20% turnout, jihadists and coupists will have legitimacy to say “See, people don’t want democracy, they want Sharia or military.”
- Japa wave 3.6 million Nigerians japa’d 2019-2024 will become 10 million by 2030 if democracy fails all landing in UK, Canada, US, EU as migrants. So this is not a Nigerian or African problem only. It is a global democratic problem.
WHAT MUST 99% DO BEFORE 2027? The 5 COMMANDMENTS:
- Register and Vote — No More 26%: If 68 million who stayed home vote in 2027, vote buyers cannot buy 68 million. N10k times 68m = N680bn — impossible. Your vote is an antidote to poverty.
- Demand Presidential Debate Law:
Like Ghana and Kenya, pass a law that any candidate who refuses debate is disqualified. Force President Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Gregory Obi to debate for 3 hours. - Protect INEC — But Verify: Demand INEC uploads results real-time with 2 servers — one local, one at ECOWAS Abuja — so glitch cannot happen. Just do it and see!
- Reclaim Party: Youth must join the party — not Twitter or only social media. APC, PDP, ADC membership is open. Join and become ward chairman. That is how UK youth took the Labour Party.
- Demand 99% Agenda: Any candidate in 2027 must sign a charter: Reduce food price, create jobs, protect speech, reform judiciary or no vote.
CONCLUSION:
Democracy is like palm wine — if you don’t drink it fresh, it ferments and becomes sour.
Nigerian democracy is fermenting. Turnout from 52% to 26% in 24 years is graph of suicide. Hence, both Internal and External Democratic Stakeholders must act ASAP.
We have two choices before February 2027:
Either 99% wake up and rescue democracy from its own samurai sword or we watch it complete hara-kiri and invite another samurai from the barracks who will say “You civilians failed” may Almighty Allah forbid.
Military coups in Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea, Chad all started with the same symptoms: low turnout, vote buying, judiciary distrust, electoral umpire’s mistrust and shrinking civic space. Nigeria is the last big democratic standing in Sahel. If we fall, Africa falls and in the future democratic governance is unpredictable in the entire Sahel Region and indeed African Continent.
Let us not commit hara-kiri. Let us commit Hara-KIRU — which in Japanese means “to wake up and live.”
Abbati Bako is democratic governance scholar, psc, bsis, Alumnus University of Kent, UK’s European University. He writes from Nigeria and can be reached via abbatibako@gmail.com +2349077889959
