In a nutshell, Eisenkot won the recommendations battle 67-46. But recommendations are not a coalition. He still has to solve the impossible puzzle: Liberman vs Arab Parties vs UTJ. If he can’t, Israel heads towards stalemate or fresh election.
Election result (Oct 27) — no change:
Netanyahu bloc: 53/120 — Likud 27, UTJ 7, Otzma Yehudit 7, Shas 6, Religious Zionism 6
Eisenkot bloc: 48/120 — Yashar 21, B’Yachad 12, Democrats 8, Yisrael Beiteinu 7
Arab parties: 19/120 — Joint List 11, Ra’am 8
Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has 61 alone.
What happened Thursday Nov 5 — Consultations: President IsaacHerzog finished meeting all parties. Final tally:
Eisenkot: 67 recommendations — 48 from his bloc + 8 Ra’am + 11 Joint List
Netanyahu: 46 recommendations — Likud + Shas + Religious Zionism + Otzma + Zehut. 7 abstained — UTJ refused to recommend anyone. That’s the biggest number of recommendations since 2015.
The clincher was Joint List. They were going to abstain, then at the last minute unanimously decided to recommend Eisenkot to stop Netanyahu returning.
UTJ breaking away was the other shock. Netanyahu’s longtime ultra-Orthodox partner said no, because he failed to pass the Yeshiva draft exemption law.
Why 67 does NOT mean government yet: Of those 67, only 48 are actually willing to sit together without conditions.
Joint List says: We will support from outside, we will NOT join government
- Ra’am says: We support, but Eisenkot says he won’t form government with Arab parties
- Liberman (7 seats) says: I will NOT sit in a government that depends on Arab parties. He has now lifted his old veto on sitting with UTJ — he prefers UTJ over Arab parties.
So Eisenkot is stuck: 48 + UTJ (7) = 55, still 6 short. 48 + Arab outside support = 67 on paper, but Liberman vetoes it.
WHAT HERZOG SAID:
Result is “clear” but there are “mutual vetoes between and within blocs” so he can’t tell who can actually form a stable government. He will hold private talks Friday-Saturday, then announce Sunday November 8.
Yashar is pushing him: “Give it to Eisenkot as soon as possible.” Eisenkot himself said Thursday night: “The road ahead is still long. Goal: a national emergency government.”
WHAT NEXT:
Sunday November 8: Herzog announces mandate. Likely: Eisenkot.
Tue November 10: New Knesset sworn in. First job: Elect new Speaker, oust Likud’s Amir Ohana.
Whoever gets mandate gets 28 days + 14 days extension to form government.
Until then, Netanyahu stays as caretaker Prime Minister.
— SOURCE
