By Mohammed Bello Doka
Fifty million. That is the number of Nigerians who have fallen into poverty since Bola Ahmed Tinubu took the oath of office in May 2023. The World Bank report of October 2025 confirmed that 139 million Nigerians were living in poverty, up from 87 million in 2023 . That is more than 50 million human beings—more than the entire population of Kenya—who have slipped below the poverty line in just over two years. The World Bank’s own numbers make this clear: poverty rose from 40 percent in 2019 to a projected 61 percent by 2025, with three-quarters of that increase occurring before 2023 . But the trajectory did not reverse. It accelerated.
Now here is the choice. You can choose four more years of this. You can choose to watch your children grow up hungry, your naira lose value, your future erased. Or you can choose redemption in 2027. That is not a threat. That is arithmetic. That is cause and effect. That is the choice staring you in the face whether you like it or not.
But let us talk to the supporters. The ones with the caps and the brooms and the posters. Over 90 percent of the Tinubu supporters I know are victims of the same poverty they refuse to name. They cannot buy rice. They cannot pay school fees. They trek because they cannot afford transport. They are the 139 million. The World Bank counted them . The National Bureau of Statistics counted them before Tinubu even took office—133 million Nigerians, 63 percent of the population, multidimensionally poor in 2022 . That was the baseline. Before the reforms. Before the naira floated. Before the subsidy was removed. The foundation was already cracked. And then the government took a sledgehammer to it.
Then there are the bigger ones. The ministers. The top government officials. The special advisers and the coordinators and the senior special assistants. They are not poor yet. But they are facing an acute financial drought of their own. The contracts are not flowing. The allowances are delayed. The estacode is shrinking. They are sitting in their offices, doing the math, waiting for 2027 so the campaign money can flow again. Here is the bad news. The money is gone.
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele announced that fuel subsidy removal generated N15.8 trillion between June 2023 and December 2025 . The federal government’s share was N5.4 trillion . The rest went to states and local governments. That was the money they said would transform Nigeria. That was the money they said would fund infrastructure and education and healthcare.
Where did it go? External debt servicing consumed N9.37 trillion—more than the federal government’s entire share of the subsidy savings . Wage adjustments took another N9.39 trillion. The finance ministry’s own figures show that wages and external debt service together consumed N18.76 trillion—roughly 92 percent of the federal government’s N20.4 trillion in incremental resources . The money is spent. Every naira. Obligated to creditors and public servants, leaving nothing for the 139 million.
And what does the government spend on itself? President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima budgeted N9.36 billion for travel and food in 2026 . Nearly ten billion naira for trips and meals. The President alone allocated N6.14 billion for international travel and N873 million for local travel . Food and refreshments for the President: N431 million. For the Vice President: N186 million . Meanwhile, the World Bank’s report showed poverty rising to 61 percent—139 million Nigerians below the poverty line . The poverty rate climbs while the government feasts.
The children are paying the price. Médecins Sans Frontières treated over 440,000 children for malnutrition in 2025—the highest number in recent years . 353,989 children with severe acute malnutrition as outpatients. 90,723 admitted with complications . These are not numbers. These are babies. Nigerian babies. Starving while their government budgets billions for travel and refreshments.
The debt tells the same story. The 2026 budget allocates N15.8 trillion for debt service . Health gets N1.01 trillion. Education gets N1.38 trillion . The interest on debt is more than fifteen times what the government spends on the health of its own people. Creditors first. Nigerians last.
So here is the truth for the supporters. You are conquered. You do not realize it because you still have the energy to argue on social media, to defend the indefensible, to attack those who tell you the truth. But conquered people always argue. They always defend. They always hope. And conquered people have no options. You will vote in 2027 because that is what conquered people do. You will campaign because the little money will flow during the season. You will celebrate when your candidate wins. And then you will go back to the same poverty you were in before. The same hunger. The same struggle. The same 139 million.
Another four years of Tinubu will not just make Nigeria the poverty capital of the world. It will make Nigeria the permanent headquarters of poverty. The address every poor person on earth will cite as the place where poverty was perfected. The model. The blueprint. The cautionary tale.
On your mandate, Bola. On your mandate, we shall stand. That is what the song says. But the data says something else. The data says on your mandate, 50 million fell. On your mandate, 139 million are poor. On your mandate, they should starve. That is not a lyric. That is a verdict.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via bellodoka82@gmail.com
